bellwether counties epoch times

The counties are also mostly small and rural. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Were a service industry-oriented area. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Im not happy with the way things are now. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. I hope.. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Theres significant variability among them, though. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. He is his own worst enemy.. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. In addition to Florida Gov. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Jim Hoft. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. And it can happen.. He considers Trump pro-life. You have to take the lesser of two evils. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. I think its very political right now, honestly. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Medicare is becoming a joke. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Weve never done that before.. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Bremer County, Iowa Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. I think it worked out without me.. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This is a high farming community.. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . I think we needed somebody like him.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Our roads need to be fixed. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. On . We need election reform.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. I find that hard to believe. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. About The Author. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Theres significant variability among them though. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We were as far down to five cooks last year. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next.

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